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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva

December 2, 2023

Discover a betting chance in the imminent lightweight showdown between Clay Guida and Joaquim Silva on the UFC on ESPN 52 main card. Silva has a moderate -350 moneyline, making him a compelling potential wager.

Clay Guida Betting Preview

Guida is returning to action after a unanimous decision defeat to Rafa Garcia in April earlier this year at UFC on ESPN 44. He has not been the most consistent fighter in the UFC, as his record stands at 18-17 here.

He has an enormous number of wins, with 38 consisting of seven knockouts, 14 submissions, 16 decisions, and one by “other”. He has 14 first round finishes, but has not recorded one since 2017. Out of 23 losses, 11 have come by submission.

“The Carpenter” has lower offensive accuracies, with a 34 percent success rate on strikes and 37 percent in takedowns. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he lands 2.63 strikes each minute and takes on 3.01. This will likely affect the fight and not in his favor.

Guida defends against significant strikes 61 percent of the time and defends against takedowns at a rate of 69 percent. He also manages to land 3.16 takedowns and 0.64 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Joaquim Silva Betting Preview

Silva has gone 1-3 in his last four battles and is needing to get back on the winning side. His previous battle was a third round TKO defeat against Arman Tsarukyan back at UFC on ESPN 47 in June of this year.

In 12 wins, he has established seven knockouts, three submissions, and two decisions, while also ending eight of these wins in the first round. In addition, three of his four losses are by knockout.

“Netto BJJ” lands strikes with an accuracy at 40 percent and delivers takedowns 50 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, resulting in 3.71 strikes and 4.79 absorbed each minute of combat. Just like Guida, this could not turn in his favor.

Silva has solid defenses against significant strikes and takedowns, with a 52 percent and 59 percent rate of success respectively. He also throws in 0.17 takedowns and 0.52 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie presents the betting odds for this UFC bout, indicating Joaquim Silva as a moderate favorite for victory.

  • Clay Guida: +225

  • Joaquim Silva: -350

Silva is slightly more appealing here when looking at stats. If you are inclined to place a wager on him, you can include him in a parlay with other fights of the night or opt for a prop bet to enhance the potential payout.

Spooky Express Pick: Joaquim Silva in Parlay or Prop