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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Daren Elkins vs. TJ Brown

October 14, 2023

At the upcoming UFC Fight Night, the prelims present numerous exciting matchups that offer betting opportunities. The last battle in the prelims worth paying attention to in the Las Vegas, Nevada event is a featherweight showdown between Daren Elkins and TJ Brown.

  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023

  • Main Card: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 4:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Daren Elkins Betting Preview

Elkins has gone 1-2 over his most recent three fights, which shows he needs to find some consistency soon. His previous battle was a unanimous decision against Jonathan Pearce at UFC on ESPN 42 in December of last year.

He is a MMA veteran with 27 wins, which consist of nine knockout victories, five via submission, and 13 decisions. Remarkably, nine of these wins took place in the first round. Additionally, six out of his 11 losses were determined by decision.

"The Damage" has solid numbers offensively, such as a 38 percent striking accuracy and completes takedowns with a 34 percent success rate. When it comes to significant strikes, the ratio is slightly in his favor, averaging 3.53 per minute while absorbing 3.35. Establishing distance is crucial for his success.

On the defensive front, he showcases a solid defense against significant strikes at 52 percent and a slightly more appealing defense against takedowns at 58 percent. He also secures 2.73 takedowns and 1.08 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

TJ Brown Betting Preview

Brown also needs to find ways to stay consistent, as he too has gone 1-2 in his last three battles. His previous matchup was a second round rear-naked choke submission against Bill Algeo at UFC on ESPN 44 in April earlier this year.

He has strung together 17 victories, which feature four knockouts, 10 submissions, and three decisions. He has been impressive early in fights, as he has secured first-round finishes in nine of these wins. On the flip side, he experienced four submission losses that show a weakness in the ground.

"Downtown" displays solid accuracy, landing 45 percent of his strikes and successfully executing takedowns 56 percent of the time. His significant strike rate is marginally better than Elkins', with him delivering 3.63 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14.

Defensively, he manages to evade only 48 percent of significant strikes and successfully fends off 36 percent of takedown attempts. Over the course of 15 minutes in the cage, he averages 3.53 takedowns and 1.47 submissions.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has their most recent odds indicating that TJ Brown holds a slight advantage in the likelihood of winning. You might want to consider adding Brown to a parlay with other matches to enhance the potential payout should he emerge victorious in this contest.

  • Daren Elkins: +170

  • TJ Brown: -205

Brown has better striking and is more aggressive in his takedowns. Look for Brown to likely win this on by a decision.

Spooky Express Pick: TJ Brown -205