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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Derrick Lewis vs. Jailton Almeida

November 4, 2023

The upcoming UFC Fight Night in São Paulo, Brazil, features a main event heavyweight battle between 10th-ranked Derrick Lewis (27-11-0) and ninth-ranked Jailton Almeida (19-2-0). Currently, Almeida is heavily favored to win at -550.

  • Location: Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo, Brazil

  • Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023

  • Main Card: 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Derrick Lewis Betting Preview

Lewis has had a rough stretch in his last six fights, going 2-4 in that span. He recently got back on a positive note after a first round TKO against Marcos Rogerio De Lima at UFC 291 back in July of this year.

The 38-year-old has put together an impressive 27 wins, which consist of 22 knockouts, a submission, and four decisions. Nine of those wins have ended in the first round and seven of his 11 defeats have come by knockout.

"The Black Beast" has a striking accuracy at 51 percent, but lacks a strong takedown accuracy at 28 percent. He lands 2.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.59, esstially breaking even when it comes to striking.

His defenses are slightly weaker than average. He defends against significant strikes at 41 percent and against takedowns at 52 percent. He is on the ground every now and then, with 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Jailton Almeida Betting Preview

Almeida has not lost since 2018 and is currently on a 14-fight win streak. His most recent success was a first round rear-naked choke submission over Jairzinho Rozenstruik back at UFC on ABC 4 in May earlier this year.

He has 19 wins that have accumulated by early finishes, with seven knockouts and 12 submissions. In addition, 14 of those have resulted in first round finishes. He also only has one loss each by knockout and decision.

“Malhadinho” strikes with an accuracy of 64 percent and averages takedowns with an accuracy of 68 percent. His significant strike ratio has been outstanding, as he delivers 3.81 significant strikes a minute and takes on 0.30.

Defensively, he needs to improve against significant strikes at 25 percent but does solid against takedowns at 50 percent. He also averages 6.40 takedowns and 2.46 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has their odds showing Jailton Almeida as a heavy favorite to win. You can choose to add Almeida to a parlay if you believe he will win to potentially boost his odds. Or, consider a prop bet when more are available on Saturday.

  • Derrick Lewis: +325

  • Jailton Almeida: -550

Almeida has been a monster and should do well against an aging Lewis. Again, consider Almeida with a parlay to boost his odds or check out a prop this Saturday, potentially for an early finish.

Spooky Express Pick: Jailton Almeida -550 (But play it in a Parlay)