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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics

November 4, 2023

UFC Fight Night will take place this week in São Paulo, Brazil, and offers compelling betting opportunities, especially the ending to the preliminary card. This features a lightweight bout between Elves Brener (15-3-0) and Esteban Ribovics (12-1-0), where Brener is slightly favored at -165 to win.

  • Location: Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo, Brazil

  • Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023

  • Main Card: 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Elves Brener Betting Preview

Brener has won his last four fights prior to this matchup. His most recent successful bout was a third round TKO over Guram Kutateladze back at UFC on ESPN 48.

Looking at his 15 wins, he has been excellent on the ground, but also has all three losses by decision. He has two knockouts, 11 submissions, and two decisions. In eight of his wins, they have resulted in first round finishes.

He boasts an impressive 46 percent striking accuracy but falls short in his takedown accuracy, with a success rate of only 20 percent. He consistently lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.48, resulting in a negative significant strike ratio.

Defensively, he excels with a 53 percent success rate in defending significant strikes and an impressive 86 percent success rate in thwarting takedowns. On average, he attempts 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Esteban Ribovics Betting Preview

Ribovics was able to get back on track after his first career defeat a few fights back. This recent victory was a unanimous decision over Kamuela Kirk in UFC 290 in July earlier this year.

His 12 wins have been great, as he has put together six knockouts, five submissions, and one decision. He has six first round finishes and only one loss overall by decision.

“El Gringo” boasts an impressive 53 percent accuracy rate in his striking, though his takedown accuracy remains at a respectable 67 percent. His significant strike ratio shines, with him landing 6.16 significant strikes per minute and only absorbing 3.40. This ratio is likely to tip the fight in his favor.

Defensively, he adeptly evades significant strikes 52 percent of the time and successfully defends against takedowns at a 60 percent rate. Moreover, he averages 0.95 takedowns and 0.48 submission attempts per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie currently has the odds set for this battle, with Elves Brener as a slight favorite to win. This should be close, as both fighters have similarities in their resumes.

  • Esteban Ribovics: +140

  • Elves Brener: -165

Brener will likely be aggressive in his takedown attempts. However, Ribovics has a positive significant strike ratio and is also good on the ground. Look for this to favor Ribovics.

Spooky Express Pick: Esteban Ribovics to Win at +140