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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson

September 16, 2023

The inaugural match on the main card of the upcoming UFC Fight Night presents an exceptional betting prospect. It features a featherweight clash between Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson, serving as a thrilling curtain-raiser for the remainder of the event.

  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, September 16, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Fernando Padilla Betting Preview

Padilla has been victorious in his last three fights. His most recent successful battle was a first round TKO against Julian Erosa back in April at the UFC on ESPN 45.

Out of his remarkable record of 15 victories, he has secured five knockouts, eight submissions, and two victories by decision. Notably, he boasts an impressive 10 first-round finishes, and all four of his losses have been decided by judges.

His striking prowess shines with a remarkable 69 percent accuracy rate, while he has yet to attempt any takedowns. On the offensive side, he averages 11.88 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 8.91, giving him a notable advantage in exchanges.

Defensively, he stands out with a 38 percent success rate in defending against significant strikes and a flawless 100 percent record in thwarting takedown attempts. Despite having only one brief UFC bout on his record, he had not seen any ground action in minutes per 15 minutes of fighting.

Kyle Nelson Betting Preview

Nelson is needing some positive energy in the UFC, as he currently has a 2-4-1 record. His recent battle was a unanimous decision victory against Blake Bilder back in June earlier this year at UFC 289.

With 14 victories to his name, he boasts an impressive track record, including five knockouts, four submissions, and four decisions. Notably, seven of those wins were first-round finishes, while he experienced five losses, two by knockout and two by decision.

In terms of striking accuracy, "The Monster" maintains a solid 45 percent, coupled with a 23 percent takedown accuracy. His output includes 3.06 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 4.52, resulting in a slightly negative ratio.

Defensively, he is formidable, defending against significant strikes at a rate of 49 percent and takedowns at an impressive 71 percent. Additionally, he averages 1.37 takedowns and 0.79 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time, showcasing his well-rounded skills.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie's most recent odds indicate that Fernando Padilla holds a somewhat favorable position as the potential winner of this fight. Incorporating Padilla into a parlay, alongside other matches scheduled for the evening, might be a strategic move to enhance his odds.

  • Kyle Nelson: +205

  • Fernando Padilla: -250

The market has lost faith in Nelson with his record. Look for Padilla to land his second straight win in the UFC.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Fernando Padilla to Win at -250