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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

November 4, 2023

The forthcoming UFC Fight Night in São Paulo, Brazil, showcases a co-main welterweight contest, with Gabriel Bonfim (15-0-0) taking on Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1). Presently, Bonfim is heavily favored at -600 for the victory.

  • Location: Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo, Brazil

  • Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023

  • Main Card: 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Gabriel Bonfim Betting Preview

Bonfim is aiming to impress again to extend his undefeated 15-fight win streak. He recently added another win, which was a first round guillotine choke submission back at UFC 291 in July of this year.

In his 15 victories, he has three knockouts and 12 submissions. Eight of these 15 battles have resulted in first round finishes.

"Marretinha" showcases a remarkable 38 percent striking accuracy and excels in takedown accuracy, boasting a perfect 100 percent success rate. He consistently delivers 6.08 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.80, granting him a slight edge in striking exchanges. However, defending more often would serve him well.

His defensive capabilities are quite dependable, with a 67 percent success rate in deflecting significant strikes and an impeccable 100 percent success rate in thwarting takedowns. On average, he attempts 4.80 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time and has secured two submissions in his two UFC bouts.

Nicolas Dalby Betting Preview

Dalby has been successful in his last three battles and is looking to overcome a heavy challenge. His recent win was a unanimous decision against Muslim Salikhov back at UFC on ESPN 47 in June earlier this year.

He has plenty of wins to go around, with 22 of them consisting of six knockouts, four submissions, and 12 decisions. Three of his 22 triumphs have ended in the first round. He also has all four of his defeats coming by decision.

He maintains a striking accuracy of 42 percent, though his takedown accuracy stands at a modest 32 percent. His significant strike ratio is tight, as he delivers 3.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.39.

On the defensive side, he successfully avoids significant strikes 52 percent of the time and fends off takedowns at a rate of 63 percent. Additionally, he averages 1.18 takedowns and 0.10 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie's odds currently place Gabriel Bonfim as a heavy favorite for victory. If you are confident in his win, you may want to include Bonfim in a parlay to potentially increase his odds. Alternatively, explore prop bets, especially when more become available on Saturday.

  • Nicolas Dalby: +350

  • Gabriel Bonfim: -600

On paper, Bonfim appears to be the more attractive option and presents a promising opportunity for victory. Including him in a parlay could enhance the potential payout, but it is also worth exploring a prop bet for an early finish.

Spooky Express Pick: Gabriel Bonfim to win at -600 in a parlay