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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

October 7, 2023


UFC Fight Night promises a thrilling headlining bout, brimming with enticing betting prospects. This marquee confrontation unfolds in the lightweight division, pitting the 10th-ranked Grant Dawson against Bobby Green, capturing the interest of both enthusiasts and punters.


  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, October 07, 2023

  • Main Card: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 4:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Grant Dawson Betting Preview

Dawson has gone 12-0-1 in his last 13 fights and is aiming to continue this streak since 2016. His previous successful bout was a unanimous decision over Damir Ismagulov back at UFC on ESPN 48 in July of this year.

He boasts a total of 20 career victories, featuring an impressive quartet of knockouts, 13 submissions, and three hard-fought decisions. Notably, seven of his triumphs culminated within the opening round, underscoring his proficiency. In a testament to his resilience, his lone defeat was incurred via a knockout.

Known as "KGD," he exhibits precision in his UFC strikes, registering a commendable 52 percent accuracy and offers his takedown skills with a 36 percent accuracy rate. His performance in significant strikes is solid, averaging 2.99 landed per minute while absorbing 2.22. While these numbers lean slightly in his favor, there is potential for him to adopt a more aggressive approach.

He fends off significant strikes 46 percent of the time and demonstrates a 40 percent success rate against takedowns. Notably, he maintains a consistent average of 3.70 takedowns and 1.48 submissions every 15 minutes of fight time.

Bobby Green Betting Preview

Green is coming off of a solid third-round arm-triangle choke submission win against veteran UFC fighter Tony Ferguson, in which Ferguson now has lost six straight fights. This was back at UFC 291 in July of this year.

His impressive fighting history includes 30 victories, with a well-rounded mix of 10 knockouts, nine submissions, and 11 decisions. It is worth noting that he achieved victory within the first round in 10 of these 30 wins, but he has faced eight losses by decision.

"King" demonstrates precision in striking with a 52 percent accuracy and has takedown attempts at 38 percent success. On average, he delivers 6.14 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.67, indicating an aggressive striking style.

When it comes to his defense, he does well against significant strikes with a success rate of 63 percent and defends against takedowns with a 74 percent success rate. Additionally, he has executed 1.21 takedowns and 0.32 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

According to the latest odds from MyBookie, Grant Dawson is positioned as the frontrunner to secure victory in this bout. To enhance your potential winnings, you might want to include Dawson in a multi-fight parlay for the evening.


  • Bobby Green: +240

  • Grant Dawson: -298

Green is going to want a fast paced fight, but Dawson is excellent at slowing the pace down. Look for Dawson to win by decision.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Grant Dawson to Win at -298