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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pinchel

November 4, 2023


The upcoming UFC Fight Night in São Paulo, Brazil, showcases a marquee lightweight contest on the main card, pitting Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) against Vinc Pichel (14-3-0). Bonfim enjoys strong favoritism, while the odds indicate a particularly enticing opportunity for under 2.5 rounds (-145).


  • Location: Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo, Brazil

  • Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023

  • Main Card: 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Ismael Bonfim Betting Preview

Bonfim just had his 13-fight win streak since 2015 snapped in his last battle. This was a first round face crank submission defeat to Benoit St. Denis back at UFC on ESPN 48 in July of this year.

He has accumulated 19 wins so far, with nine knockouts, four submissions, and six decisions. He has six first round finishes in his 19 wins and all four of his defeats have come by submission.

"Marreta" showcases an impressive striking accuracy of 58 percent, albeit his takedown accuracy lags behind at 29 percent. He consistently delivers 4.91 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.66, creating a notable gap between these two averages.

His defense has been strong, as he defends against significant strikes at 77 percent and against takedowns at 82 percent. He also manages to add in 1.11 takedowns every 15 minutes of fighting time.

Vinc Pichel Betting Preview

Pichel returns to the octagon after a unanimous decision defeat to Mark O. Madsen back in April of last year at UFC 273. This loss snapped his previous three-fight win streak dating back to 2019.

The 40-year-old has strung together 14 wins that consist of eight knockouts and six decisions. So far, has two first round knockout finishes, but has not had one since 2017. He also has one loss per category.

“From Hell” demonstrates a 47 percent striking accuracy and a 55 percent takedown accuracy. He maintains a positive significant strike ratio, delivering 3.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.50, which bodes well for his chances of success.

Defensively, he boasts a 57 percent success rate against significant strikes but shows vulnerability with a 23 percent defense against takedowns. Furthermore, he averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has odds for this battle, with Ismael Bonfim heavily favored to win. However, you could also  consider choosing him to win in under 2.5 rounds to have better odds.


  • Under 2.5 rounds: +115

  • Over 2.5 rounds: -145

Bettors can take Bonfim to win outright and add him to parlay to boost his payout with other fights on the night. On the other hand, he has a great opportunity to win in under 2.5 rounds. 

Spooky Express Pick: Ismael Bonfim Win Under 2.5 Rounds at -145