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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales

November 18, 2023

Welterweights Michael Morales (15-0-0) and Jake Matthews (19-6-0) will headline the co-main event for UFC Fight Night 232 on Saturday, November 18. Morales is a moneyline favorite to find success at -305.

  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

  • Main Card: 5:00 PM ET

  • Prelims: 2:00 PM ET

  • Coverage: ESPN+

Michael Morales Betting Preview

Morales has been perfect in his 15 professional fights and is 3-0 in UFC battles. His previous successful battle was a unanimous decision over Max Griffin at UFC on ESPN 48 in July earlier this year.

His 15 wins are composed of 11 knockouts, one submission, and three decisions. Nearly half of his wins (seven) have ended in the opening round of action.

He has done well with striking at 49 percent and has landed takedowns at a rate of 45 percent. His significant strike ratio shows a good separation between the two averages, as he lands 5.17 significant strikes each minute and absorbs 3.54.

His defense against significant strikes is solid at 48 percent, but is much more appealing against takedowns at 91 percent. He also manages 1.66 takedowns in each 15 minutes of fight time.

Jake Matthews Betting Preview

Matthews has gone 2-2 in his last four fights and is now 12-6 overall in the UFC. His most recent fight was a second round rear-naked choke submission back at UFC 291 in July of this year. He now ranks as the 33rd-best welterweight fighter according to world rankings.

He has sustained 19 wins on his resume that show balance, as he has five knockouts, eight submissions, and six decisions. Three of his 19 wins have ended in the first round. In six defeats, half of them have come by submission.

“The Celtic Kid” strikes with an accuracy rate at 46 percent and lands takedowns at a rate of 41 percent. He lands 3.27 significant strikes a minute and takes on 2.33. This showcases a solid ratio between the two, which will be key here.

His defenses are appealing, as he does well against significant strikes and against takedowns at a success rate of 61 and 62 percent respectively. He also throws in 1.71 takedowns and 0.67 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie showcases the odds for this fight, which reveals Michael Morales as a moderate favorite to win. Consider the addition of Morales in a parlay with other fights on the night or a prop bet that would potentially offer you a better return versus the moneyline alone.

  • Jake Matthews: +245

  • Michael Morales: -305

Matthews has plenty of UFC experience and could move this fight in his favor. However, Morales is appealing with his striking and could end it early.

Spooky Express Pick: Michael Morales in Parlay or Prop