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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez

January 13, 2024

Experience an exhilarating start to the new year as UFC makes its comeback with a captivating fight card set for Saturday, January 13, at 7:00 PM ET at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Witness an intense lightweight clash between Jim Miller and Gabriel Benítez during UFC Fight Night 234, where Miller holds a slight moneyline advantage at -120.

Jim Miller Betting Preview

Miller enters this fight with some positive momentum on his side, which was a first round knockout victory over Jesse Butler back at UFC on ESPN 46 in June of last year. This put him back on track after a unanimous decision defeat to Alexander Hernandez back in February of last year.

He has plenty of experience to look at, with 36 wins consisting of seven knockouts, 19 submissions, and 10 decisions. Impressively, 15 of those 36 wins have ended in the opening round. As for losses, 12 of his 17 have come by decision.

“A-10” strikes with an accuracy at 42 percent and lands takedowns with an accuracy at 43 percent. He lands 2.86 significant strikes and absorbs 3.08 significant strikes each minute of action. This negative ratio could hurt his chances at success.

Miller lands 1.56 takedowns and 1.75 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. He also has subpar defenses, which show a 59 percent success rate against significant strikes and a 48 percent success rate against takedowns.

Gabriel Benítez Betting Preview

Benítez was able to snap his two-fight losing streak with his last performance inside the octagon. This was a first round TKO over Charlie Ontiveros back at UFC on ESPN 41 back in August of 2022, which shows he has not competed in a while.

Out of his 23 wins so far, nine have come by knockout, 10 by submission, and four by decision. 12 of his 23 wins have ended by a first round finish, which shows he is a threat to start a fight with. He also has 10 losses, with four each coming knockout and decision

“Moggly” lands 42 percent of his strikes and 50 percent of his takedowns. His significant strike ratio is slightly positive and aggressive, with 4.79 significant strikes landed and 4.05 strikes absorbed each minute of action.

Benítez is averaging 0.27 takedowns and 1.08 submissions per 15 minutes, which does not offer a lot of action on the ground. He also defends against significant strikes at 65 percent and defends against  takedowns at a 58 percent success rate.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds ready for this battle, with Jim Miller as a slight favorite to succeed (-120). Based on both fighter’s resumes, this could arguably go either direction. However, Mill has solid momentum and has fought recently in comparison to Benítez.

Final Pick: Jim Miller -120