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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons

January 13, 2024

Explore the exciting welterweight matchup in the prelims between Matthew Semelsberger and Preston Parsons at UFC Fight Night 234, taking place on Saturday, January 13, at 4:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Semelsberger is presently a narrow -130 moneyline favorite for this compelling bout.

Matthew Semelsberger Betting Preview

Semelsberger has gone 1-3 in his last four fights and needs some consistency soon. With a two-fight skid currently, he added to it with his last battle against Uros Medic which was a third round TKO at UFC 291 in July of last year.

He has obtained 11 wins through six knockouts, a submission, and by four decisions. In three of his wins, he ended the battle in the opening round. Out of six losses, half have come by decision.

“Semi the Jedi” strikes with an accuracy of 43 percent and lands takedowns at 58 percent. He lands 4.06 significant strikes each minute of action, while taking on 4.36. This is slightly negative and could be one of the reasons for his defeats.

He averages 1.02 takedowns and 0.15 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. He also defends against significant strikes 55 percent of the time and 50 percent against takedowns.

Preston Parsons Betting Preview

Parsons is 1-2 to start off with the UFC and is needing to get back on track. His recent battle was a split decision defeat to Trevin Giles back at UFC on ESPN 43 in March of this year.

His fighting resume shows 10 wins that consist of nine submissions and one decision. Impressively, eight of his nine submission wins have ended in the first round. Looking at his four losses, half of them have come by knockout.

“Pressure” has landed 56 percent of his strikes and 33 percent of his takedowns. He typically delivers 4.14 significant strikes and takes on 3.76 each minute of fight time. This is slightly positive and a bit better than what Semelsberger puts up.

Parsons is getting 3.11 takedowns and 3.55 submissions per 15 minutes of action. He is also defending against significant strikes at 49 percent and has successfully deflected against all opposition takedowns.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

The odds for this showdown are offered through MyBookie, which reveals Matthew Semelsberger as a slight favorite (-130) for success. This could arguably go either way, as both fighters seem to match up well on paper.

If the fight were to stay on the ground, it could favor Parsons due to his aggressive takedowns and ability to close out fights there. 

However, Semelsberger has appealing experience in the UFC and should be able to bounce back here. Look for Semelsberger to likely close this out by a decision.

Final Pick: Matthew Semelsberger -130