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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila

December 2, 2023

The UFC on ESPN 52 features a women’s bantamweight battle between Miesha Tate and Julia Avila as the final battle in the preliminaries. Avila is a slight moneyline favorite to find success at -155.

Miesha Tate Betting Preview

Tate has gone 1-4 in her last five fights, which is not the type of momentum anyone wants to have going into their next fight. Her most recent defeat was a unanimous decision to Lauren Murphy at UFC on ABC 3 in July of last year.

Her fighting resume boasts 19 wins consisting of four knockouts, seven submissions, and eighth decisions. Out of her nine losses, four have been by decision. In addition, four of her 19 wins have resulted in first round finishes.

“Cupcake” has a solid striking accuracy at 44 percent, but lacks in her takedown accuracy at 30 percent. She has a negative significant strike ratio that could inspect her ability to win, which comes in at 2.61 significant strikes a minute and absorbing 3.10.

Tate defends at a decent rate against significant strikes at 52 percent and against takedowns at 55 percent. She also managed to throw in 1.88 takedowns and 1.29 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Julia Avila Betting Preview

Avila has gone 3-1 in the UFC since joining in 2019. Her previous battle was a third round rear-naked choke submission over Julija Stoliarenko back in June of 2021 at the UFC Fight Night 190.

She has accumulated nine wins so far that shows she can do a little bit of everything, which consists of four knockouts, two submissions, and three decisions. She only has two defeats, one by knockout and decision. She also has four wins that have ended in the opening round.

“Raging Panda” strikes with a solid accuracy of 44 percent, but also lacks in her takedown accuracy at 33 percent similar to Tate. Her significant strike ratio will likely be the difference here, as she lands 3.18 significant strikes a minute and takes on 2.86.

Avila has slightly better defenses than Tate, with a significant strike defense at 56 percent and a takedown defense at 62 percent. She also has some action on the ground, with 0.67 takedowns and 0.34 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has Julia Avila slightly favored to win this fight. Both have similarities in their resumes, which should make this a close battle.

  • Miesha Tate: +125

  • Julia Avila: -155

Tate has not caught a break since her debut in the UFC and does not have good striking numbers. Look for Avila to leapfrog her in the rankings with a win.

Spooky Express Pick: Julia Avila at -155