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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca

October 7, 2023


The next UFC Fights Night offers a plethora of great matchups. Nate Maness and Mateus Mendonca square off in an exciting flyweight showdown early within the prelims for a your next betting opportunity.


  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, October 07, 2023

  • Main Card: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 4:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Nate Maness Betting Preview

Maness has lost his last two bouts and is needing to find a way to break the skid. His recent defeat was a first round guillotine choke submission against Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC Fight Night 214 back in November of last year.

Throughout his career, he can proudly claim 14 victories, with an impressive breakdown of five knockouts, three submissions, and six decision wins. Remarkably, four of those 14 victories ended swiftly in the first round. Notably, he has experienced just one loss in each category.

Known as "Mayhem," he showcases a striking accuracy of 43 percent and boasts a 75 percent success rate in takedowns. His offensive skills shine, averaging 1.94 significant strikes per minute, although he absorbs 4.65, indicating an aggressive style with a big drawback.

He excels in his defensive tactics, successfully defending against significant strikes 41 percent of the time and takedowns 76 percent of the time. Moreover, he averages 0.96 takedowns and 0.32 submissions for every 15 minutes of action.

Mateus Mendonca Betting Preview

Mendonca just suffered his first career defeat, which was also his debut in the UFC outside of Dana White’s Contender Series. This was a unanimous decision against Javid Basharat back at UFC Fight Night 217 in January of this year.

He holds a good track record, securing 10 victories in various ways: three by knockouts, four via submissions, and three through decision wins. Impressively, seven of these wins came as first-round triumphs, with only one loss by decision.

In the realm of striking, "Bocao" demonstrates remarkable precision with a 38 percent accuracy, complemented by a successful takedown rate of 18 percent. Noteworthy is his average of 2.41 significant strikes per minute, though he absorbs 6.27, which paints a less flattering performance picture.

On the defensive side, he displays a 29 percent defense rate against significant strikes and a commendable 40 percent defense against takedowns. Across 15 minutes of fight time, his average stands at 1.90 takedowns.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie reveals the latest odds, shedding light on the moderate chances of Mateus Mendonça securing a win in this showdown. It is worth contemplating including Mendonça in a parlay with other matches for the evening to optimize your potential earnings.


  • Nate Maness: +210

  • Mateus Mendonça: -258

Both fighters have had their issues, especially when striking. However, take someone with slightly more UFC exposure in Mendonça to win.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Mateus Mendonca to Win at -258