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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden

November 18, 2023

UFC Fight Night 232 showcases great fighting personalities, such as the duel between lightweights Nikolas Motta (16-6-0) and Trey Ogden (13-5-0) on Saturday, November 18. Motta is the current slight moneyline favorite at -130.

  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

  • Main Card: 5:00 PM ET

  • Prelims: 2:00 PM ET

  • Coverage: ESPN+

Nikolas Motta Betting Preview

Motta has gone 1-2 in the UFC since his success at Dana White’s Contender Series. His most recent fight was a first round TKO defeat to Manuel Torres at UFC on ESPN 47 in June earlier this year.

In 13 wins so far, he has established nine knockouts and four decisions. Seven of these victories have resulted in first round finishes and four out of his five losses have come by knockout.

“Iron” lands strikes at a rate of 35 percent in the UFC, but has not yet tested his takedown attempts. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he takes on 3.40 significant strikes each minute and absorbs 4.71.

Motta defends against significant strikes well at 58 percent and has successfully thwarted all takedowns tried on him. However, he does not have any takedowns or submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Trey Ogden Betting Preview

Ogden has also gone 1-2 in UFC contention, but without any performances in the DWCS. His most recent battle was a unanimous decision loss to Ignacio Bahamondes back at UFC 287 in April of this year. 

He has compiled 16 wins that are composed of 11 submissions and five decisions. In six of these submission triumphs, he has ended the fight in the first round. He also has three losses each by submission and decision.

“Samurai Ghost” lands strikes at a success rate of 42 percent and takedowns at 14 percent. He typically lands 3.42 significant strikes each minute and absorbs 4.89. This ratio will likely get him into trouble, as he typically takes on more than he delivers.

His defense against significant strikes is at 54 percent and has succeeded in defending against all takedowns in the UFC. He also averages 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has this battle as a close contest of talent, showing that Nikolas Motta is a slight favorite to win. Given his resume, it makes sense to lean towards betting on him.

  • Trey Ogden: +110

  • Nikolas Motta: -130

Both fighters have had issues in striking since joining the UFC. This also shows a huge difference in their fighting styles, as Ogden lives on the ground while Motta would rather be on his feet. If Motta stays aggressive in striking and does not allow takedowns, he should win.

Spooky Express Pick: Nikolas Motta at -130