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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

December 2, 2023


The upcoming UFC on ESPN 52 event offers great betting opportunities. For example, the opening bout on the main card between middleweights Punahele Soriano (9-3-0) and Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0) is one of those opportunities. Soriano is a moderate moneyline favorite at -270 to win.

Punahele Soriano Betting Preview

Soriano has gone 1-3 over his last four fights, so he definitely needs to find consistency soon. This is an especially important battle since he is coming off a second round TKO defeat to Roman Kopylov at UFC Fight Night 217 in January of this year.

He has strung together nine wins that are compiled of six knockouts, two submissions, and one decision. Even more impressive is that seven of these wins have ended in the first round. In two of his three defeats, they have come by decision.

“Story Time” has typically landed strikes at a 46 percent accuracy rate, while landing takedowns at 40 percent. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute of action and takes on 4.22.

Soriano has a significant strike defense at 48 percent and an even worse takedown defense at 30 percent. He also throws in 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Dustin Stoltzfus Betting Preview

Stoltzfus has only won one fight in his last five tries, making his urgency arguably a little higher than Soriano. His recent battle was a first round TKO defeat that lasted 19 seconds against Abusupiyan Magomedov in September of last year at UFC Fight Night 209.

He has earned 14 wins that m have been earned by two knockouts, five submissions, six decisions, and one by “other”. He has recorded five first round finishes and has gone 1-4 in the UFC.

He has established below average numbers when striking (42 percent) and landing takedowns (35 percent). Even worse, he has landed 2.96 significant strikes each minute and has taken on 3.28, resulting in a negative ratio.

His defenses are slightly more appealing compared to Soriano, as he has a 46 percent defense rate against significant strikes and takedowns. He also manages 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds for this fight, which moderately favors Punahele Soriano. Bettors might want to add him to a parlay or choose a prop bet to have better value for a potential payout.


  • Dustin Stoltzfus: +185

  • Punahele Soriano: -270

Stoltzfus has struggled worse in the UFC in comparison to Soriano. This will come down to a striking war, with Soriano likely taking over this fight and potentially winning by knockout.

Spooky Express Pick: Play Punahele Soriano in Parlay or find a Prop