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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista

January 13, 2024

Be sure to not overlook the thrilling bantamweight clash featuring the 12th-ranked Ricky Simón against Mario Bautista on the main card of UFC Fight Night 234. Scheduled for Saturday, January 13, at 7:00 PM ET in UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, Simón comes in as a -185 moneyline favorite, adding excitement to this promising matchup.

Ricky Simón Betting Preview

Simón just had his previous five-fight win streak snapped in his last battle. This was a fifth round TKO defeat at the hands of Yadong Song at UFC on ESPN 45 in April of last year.

Out of 20 career wins, he has been successful with six knockouts, four submissions, and 10 decisions. Six of his wins have ended in the opening round of action. In addition, half of his four defeats have come by knockout.

He typically strikes with an accuracy at 44 percent and la ds takedowns at 50 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he lands 3.01 significant strikes each minute while also taking on 3.23. This will be key to watch to see if it affects his performance.

He lands an incredible 5.84 takedowns and 0.40 submissions per 15 minutes of action. He also defends well against significant strikes at 63 percent and against takedowns at 75 percent.

Mario Bautista Betting Preview

Bautista has won his last five fights as he takes on another tough challenge. His previous win was a unanimous decision over Da’Mon Blackshear back at UFC 292 in August of last year.

He has accumulated 13 wins spread across three knockouts, six submissions, and four decisions. Five of these wins have resulted in first round finishes. He has one loss each coming by knockout and submission.

He is averaging 52 percent of his strikes and connecting on 50 percent of his takedown attempts. He has an aggressive significant strike ratio, with 5.32 significant strikes landed and 4.20 absorbed. This might work here if he can remain in charge with striking.

Bautista averages 2.72 takedowns and 1.26 submissions per 15 minutes of combat. He also defends solidly against significant strikes at 53 percent and against takedowns at 57 percent.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

Discover MyBookie's betting options for the upcoming event, with Ricky Simón emerging as a notable favorite (-185). Consider adding him to a parlay with other matchups or explore prop bets for potential higher payouts.

Both fighters stack up nicely on paper, which should result in a close battle with each other. The biggest difference might be significant strikes, as Simón is essentially breaking even and Bautista is a bit aggressive. However, Simón is aggressive in his takedowns and could prolong the fight in his favor.

Final Pick: Ricky Simón -185