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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes

November 4, 2023

The upcoming UFC Fight Night in São Paulo, Brazil promises exciting battles on the horizon. Keep an eye on the heavyweight clash between 15th-ranked Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0) and Don'Tale Mayes (10-5-0), where Nascimento is the favorite with odds at -190 for victory.

  • Location: Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo, Brazil

  • Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023

  • Main Card: 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Preview

Nascimento has solid momentum with a two-fight win streak coming into this event. His previous success was a split decision over Ilir Latifi back at UFC Fight Night 223 in May of this year.

He showcases 10 wins that are composed of two knockouts, six submissions, and two decisions. In six victories, they have resulted in a first round finish. In addition, his only defeat has come by knockout.

“Ze Colmeia” has a striking accuracy at 49 percent and lands takedowns at a 42 percent success rate. His significant strike ratio is a bit negative, as he delivers 4.20 significant strikes per minute while taking on 4.60. He will need to defend better in this matchup.

His defense is vulnerable against significant strikes, which he defends at a 40 percent rate and against takedowns at 75 percent. He also manages some action on the ground with 1.58 takedowns and 0.95 submissions per 15 minutes if fight time.

Don'Tale Mayes Betting Preview

Mayes is coming off of a second round TKO victory over Andrei Arlovski in June of this year at UFC on ESPN 46. This put him back on track after a decision defeat to Augusto Sakai in the fight prior.

Looking at what he has accomplished, 10 of his wins have been composed of six knockouts, a submission, and three decisions. In two triumphs, he has succeeded in finishing the fight in the first round. In five losses, two have come by submission.

The striking accuracy by “Lord Kong” is solid at 44 percent and is slightly better with his takedown attempts at 47 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, with 3.39 landed per minute and 3.73 absorbed in the same time.

Mayes defends against significant strikes and takedowns at 45 and 57 percent respectively. He also manages 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

The current odds on MyBookie suggest that Rodrigo Nascimento is the favored contender with moderate odds to secure a victory in this event.

  • Don'Tale Mayes: +160

  • Rodrigo Nascimento: -190

Both fighters should have a good striking matchup. You can look to add Nascimento to a parlay to boost his potential payout or choose a prop bet to fit his fighting style. 

Spooky Express Pick: Take Rodrigo Nascimento to Win at -190