Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum

December 2, 2023

UFC on ESPN 52 has plenty of man card bouts worth your attention, especially the welterweight showdown between ninth-ranked  Sean Brady and 11th-ranked Kelvin Gastelum. Brady is a slight moneyline favorite at -130 to find success.

Sean Brady Betting Preview

Brady suffered his first career defeat in his last battle, which was a second round TKO against Belal Muhammad at UFC 280. This also marked his first career defeat in the UFC, where he is now 5-1.

His resume consists of 15 wins that are composed of three knockouts, four submissions, and eight decisions. Three of these wins have resulted in first round finishes.

His striking accuracy is at 53 percent, as well as a takedown accuracy at 50 percent, which shows he is a threat in both regards. In fact, he lands 4.17 significant strikes a minute and takes on 3.86. This is a solid ratio, but he must continue to defend.

Brady defends solidly against significant strikes at 62 percent and does a better job against takedowns at 88 percent. He also manages 2.80 takedowns and 0.80 submissions in every 15 minutes of fight time.

Kelvin Gastelum Betting Preview

Gastelum recently ended his two-fight losing streak heading into this event. His previous win was a unanimous decision over Chris Curtis back at UFC 287 in April of this year.

He has put together a balanced resume of 18 wins, showing six knockouts, five submissions, and seven decisions. He has recorded six first round finishes and has six of his eight defeats coming by decision.

His striking accuracy is at 42 percent, but has a slightly lower takedown accuracy at 31 percent. His significant strike ratio is solid, but not a lot of room for error with 3.63 significant strikes landed and 3.31 absorbed each minute.

His defense against significant strikes is at 59 percent and has a solid takedown defense at 63 percent. On top of that, he has some ground action with 1.00 takedown and 0.10 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie reveals the odds for this battle, with Sean Brady slightly favored to win. The odds are surprisingly close despite Gastelum’s recent struggles.

  • Kelvin Gastelum: +100

  • Sean Brady: -130

Gastelum has gone 12-8 since joining the UFC in 2013. As for Brady, he has a handful of bouts here.

For striking, Brady is a lot more appealing to get the job done here. He also has more appealing stats everywhere you look. This will likely lead to a decision win for Brady.

Spooky Express Pick: Sean Brady -130