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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa

December 2, 2023


Featherweights Steve Garcia and Melquizael Costa will battle in the prelims for UFC on ESPN 52 event on Saturday, December 2. Costa is moderately favored to win with a moneyline set at -240.

Steve Garcia Betting Preview

Garcia is currently on a two-fight win streak as he enters this next event. His most recent win was a second round knockout over Nuerdanbieke Shayilan back at UFC 287 in April earlier this year.

He has compiled 14 wins so far that consist of 11 knockouts and three decisions, as well as five first round finishes. Out of his five defeats, three of them have ended by a decision.

“Mean Machine” lands 56 percent of his strikes, which should be useful here. He delivers 44 percent of his takedowns, making him a solid threat in that regard. His significant strike ratio is appealing since he lands 4.85 significant strikes each minute and takes on 2.61.

Garcia defends against significant strikes at 47 percent, but does even better against takedowns at 94 percent. He also manages to land 1.51 takedowns and 0.38 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Melquizael Costa Betting Preview

Costa has gone 1-1 so far in the UFC, with his most recent battle being his first victory here. This was a unanimous decision over Austin Lingo at UFC on ESPN 49 back in July of this year.

Looking at his balanced resume of 20 wins, he has earned seven knockouts, six submissions, and seven decisions. In eight of these wins, he has turned them into first round finishes. In addition, half of his six defeats have come by decision.

“Melk Cauthy” lands strikes with an accuracy at 46 percent and takedowns at a 38 percent rate of success. His significant strike ratio is exciting, as he lands 5.11 significant strikes each minute and absorbs just 2.53.

Costa defends against significant strikes at 65 percent of the time and against takedowns at 43 percent. He also averages 1.87 takedowns and 0.62 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie showcases the UFC match odds, favoring Melquizael Costa moderately for triumph. Costa's stats make him a slightly more attractive choice, assuming he stays aggressive with his striking.


  • Steve Garcia: +190

  • Melquizael Costa: -240

Costa has an aggressive significant strike ratio that should put him over the top here. Consider including Costa in a parlay with other night fights or choose a prop bet to boost potential payouts if you are leaning towards placing a wager on him.

Spooky Express Pick: Melquizael Costa in Parlay or Prop