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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Sumudaerji vs. Tim Elliott

December 9, 2023


The upcoming UFC Fight Night 233's main card has one bout slightly different on Saturday, December 9 in Las Vegas. 11th-ranked Tim Elliott joins at the last minute to take on 12th-ranked Su Mudaerji in a bantamweight showdown, with Elliott slightly favored with a moneyline at -130.

Tim Elliott Betting Preview

Elliott has gone 2-2 over his last four fights. His most recent encounter was a third round arm-triangle choke submission defeat against Muhammad Mokaev back at UFC 294 in October this year, which ended his previous two-fight win streak.

He has put together 19 wins that consist of three knockouts, six submissions, and 10 decisions. Five of these wins have turned into first round finishes. In 13 losses, he has six each coming by submission and decision.

He is landing strikes at a successful rate at 45 percent and lands takedowns at 48 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is appealing, as he lands 3.41 significant strikes each minute of combat, while taking on 2.67. This ratio could be the difference in the fight.

Elliott has a defense against significant strikes and takedowns at 57 and 59 percent, respectively. He also manages 3.73 takedowns and 1.00 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Su Mudaerji Betting Preview

Mudaerji is coming off of a second round triangle choke submission defeat to Matt Schnell at UFC on ABC 3 in July of last year. This ended his previous three fight win streak dating back to 2019.

His fighting resume reveals 16 wins that consist of 13 knockouts, a submission, and two decisions. Impressively, 11 of these wins have ended in the opening round of action. However, all five of his losses are by submission.

“Tibetan Eagle” has a striking accuracy at 55 percent and has succeeded in landing all of his takedowns so far. His significant strike ratio is appealing, as he delivers 4.83 significant strikes and takes on 2.75 per minute.

Her defends against significant strikes at 62 percent and does slightly better against takedowns at 67 percent. He also sprinkles in 0.32 takedowns and 0.63 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds for this showdown, with Tim Elliott slightly favored to succeed. Despite the last minute acceptance to this fight, the market is liking Elliott’s chances at success.


  • Su Mudaerji: +110

  • Tim Elliott: -130

This battle should be close, as they both stack up well on paper. If Elliott is aggressive on the ground, he should do well here.

Spooky Express Pick: Tim Elliott -130