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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Hernandez

December 9, 2023


A compelling preliminary battle between flyweights Tatsuro Taira and Carlos Hernandez will be on display at UFC Fight Night 233 on Saturday, December 9 in Las Vegas. Taira is heavily favored to win with a moneyline at -550.

Tatsuro Taira Betting Preview

Taira is undefeated through 14 professional fights and aiming to land another. His most recent success was a unanimous decision over Edgar Chairez back at UFC 290 in July earlier this year.  He has 14 of these wins composed of three knockouts, seven submissions, and four decisions. In eight of these wins, he ended the fight in the first round.

He has an excellent striking accuracy at 70 percent and lands takedowns with a successful rate at 41 percent. He has an impressive significant strike ratio, landing 3.23 significant strikes and absorbing 1.26 per minute of action.

Taira defends against significant strikes at a 47 percent success rate, but does better against takedowns at 60 percent. He also lands 2.41 takedowns and 2.75 submissions in each 15 minutes of fight time.

Carlos Hernandez Betting Preview

Hernandez is coming off a technical decision victory over Denys Bondar back at UFC on ESPN 47 in June of this year. This put him back on track after a first round submission defeat to Allan Nascimento in the fight prior.

Out of his nine wins, four have come by submission and five by decision. He has recorded three first round finishes and has one loss each by a submission and decision.

He lands 46 percent of his strikes, but does not land takedowns well at 17 percent. His significant strokes ratio is solid, as he lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and takes on 4.41. This will largely be the biggest factor in this fight.

Hernandez has a significant strike defense at 49 percent and defends against takedowns at 66 percent. He also throws in 1.24 takedowns and 0.31 submissions in each 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

The following odds have been provided by MyBookie for this fight, where Tatsuro Taira is a heavy favorite to win. Boost your potential earnings by including Taira in a parlay with other night matchups. You should also consider exploring prop bets for extra value.


  • Carlos Hernandez: +325

  • Tatsuro Taira: -550

Taira demonstrates promise across all stats in comparison. The biggest difference will be striking, as he has a clear advantage for this matchup. This battle could also end early, so check prop bets that show him winning in earlier rounds.

Spooky Express Pick: Tatsuro Taira in Parlay or Prop