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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho

September 23, 2023


The approaching UFC Fight Night promises an array of thrilling preliminary card bouts, offering enticing opportunities for astute bettors. Among them, a particularly captivating duel unfolds as Tim Means and Andre Fialho collide in an attention-worthy welterweight showdown.


  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023

  • Main Card: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 4:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Tim Means Betting Preview

Means is winless in his last three fights and is needing to stop the bleeding immediately. His recent defeat was a second round submission against Alex Morono back at UFC on ABC 4 in May earlier this year.

He boasts an impressive mark of 32 victories, showcasing his versatility with 19 knockout triumphs, five submissions, and eight well-earned decisions. Among his notable accomplishments are four first-round finishes, although he did encounter challenges, including seven submission losses out of a total of 15 bouts.

Known by the moniker "The Dirty Bird," he distinguishes himself with remarkable striking precision, attaining a striking accuracy of 48 percent. His takedown prowess is equally noteworthy, with a success rate of approximately 44 percent. Examining his performance in significant strikes, he consistently delivers an impressive average of 4.93 impactful strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.61, maintaining a slight advantage.

His defensive skills are equally strong, with a 61 percent success rate in defending against significant strikes and a remarkable 66 percent success rate in thwarting takedown attempts. Over the course of 15 minutes of fight time, he averages 1.21 takedowns and 0.17 submission attempts, showcasing his well-rounded abilities in the octagon.

Andre Fialho Betting Preview

Fialho has also lost his last three fights and must break the cycle soon. His previous defeat was a second round TKO against Joaquin Buckley back at UFC Fight Night 223 in May this year.

His record shows 16 victories, including a remarkable blend of 13 knockouts, one submission, and two decisions. Astonishingly, he clinched victory in the first round in 12 out of these 16 triumphs, while five of his seven defeats came by way of knockouts.

His precision in striking registers at an impressive 39 percent accuracy, but he has yet to succeed in any takedown attempts. On average, he delivers 3.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 5.59, indicating a slightly negative strike ratio.

When it comes to his defensive skills, he adeptly avoids significant strikes with a 51 percent success rate, and his takedown defense stands strong at 60 percent. Notably, he has not engaged in any ground action in his UFC fights.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie's latest odds indicate that Andre Fialho currently holds a slight edge as the preferred candidate for victory in this bout. With both fighters evenly matched, this promises to be an exciting and closely contested showdown.


  • Tim Means: +145

  • Andre Fialho: -170

This fight stacks up well for Means, who has only lost by submission and decision lately, whereas Fialho has a glass chin. Look for Means to get back on track.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Tim Means to Win at +145