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MMA Betting Previews | Spooky Express
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UFC Fight Night Lewis vs. Nascimento

May 11, 2024


The next UFC Fight Night will feature 12th-ranked Derrick Lewis against 15th-ranked Rodrigo Nascimento in the heavyweight main event. The co-main event features a welterweight bout between 11th-ranked Joaquin Buckley and Nursulton Ruziboev. Check out the betting action on Saturday, May 11, at 7:00 PM ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Preview

Lewis (27-12-0) returns to action after a unanimous decision defeat to Jailton Almeida in November last year. This puts him back on the losing side after he had won in his previous battle.

He is 51 percent accurate in striking and only lands 26 percent of his takedowns. He strings together 2.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.48. He is solid in defending against takedowns, with a 53 percent defense rate.

Nascimento (11-1-0) has won five out of six UFC battles. His latest victory was a unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes in November last year.

He strikes with an accuracy of 48 percent and has a takedown accuracy of 33 percent. His striking is a little more aggressive, with 4.31 strikes landed and 4.76 absorbed each minute, but he will need to defend better here. His takedown defense is likable at 78 percent, but he must find ways to protect against striking.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Betting Preview

Buckley (18-6-0) has four first-round finishes in his career, and his last fight flirted with another. He defeated Vicente Luque by second-round knockout in March of this year.

He is landing strikes at a 34 percent success rate and a takedown completion rate of 37 percent. He is completing 4.06 significant strikes landed and absorbing 3.26 each minute. Defensively, his best is against takedowns at a 69 percent rate.

Ruziboev (34-8-2) has won two UFC battles so far and has a great opportunity ahead of him. His last fight was a first-round knockout victory over Sedriques Dumas in March earlier this year.

He lands strikes at 44 percent accuracy and has succeeded in one takedown attempt so far. He delivers 3.93 significant strikes each minute while taking on 0.87, which is great but will likely change as more fights happen in the UFC. He defends best against significant strikes, with an 81 percent rate.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie offers the betting odds for this upcoming UFC Fights Night. Derrick Lewis is favored for the main event, and Joaquin Buckley is favored for success in the co-main event.

Lewis has experience on his side as long as he lands the heavy shots. Buckley has an entertaining matchup and should thrive on his feet.

Final Picks: Derrick Lewis -158, Joaquin Buckley -145