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US Open ATP Betting Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

September 6, 2023


Top-seed Carlos Alcaraz of Spain will face 12th-seeded Alexander Zverev of Germany in the US Open quarter-finals on Wednesday night. 

Sascha Zverev leads Alcaraz 3-2 in their head-to-head series (2-0 on hard courts) and the German will be keen to claim another Major win over his Spanish opponent. 

All in all, Alcaraz had won two of his last three matches against Zverev, though. However, they were on clay-courts with the Spaniard claiming his first win over Zverev in last year's Madrid Open final, while Zverev managed to beat Alcaraz in the French Open quarter-finals last season. 

Alexander Zverev Betting Preview (+395 at BetOnline) 

Having endured a long injury layoff in the second half of 2022, Sascha Zverev is steadily regaining his physical and mental shape. The top-ranked German reached this year's French Open semifinals for a third season in a row. 

Moreover, Zverev has been picking up steam this summer. He has not only ended his title drought by winning the Hamburg European Open (on clay courts in his hometown) in July, but the German also ended his nine-match losing streak against Top 10 opponents by recently defeating his fierce rival Daniil Medvedev at the Cincinnati Masters.

The 26-year-old German, who served for the Championship in 2020, is now bidding to reach the US Open semi-finals for a third consecutive appearance (he missed last year's tournament through injury).  

Remarkably, the 2020 US Open runner-up boasts an impressive record of 6-3 in quarterfinal matches at Major tournaments. Interestingly, two of the three defeats in this stage came against Novak Djokovic (at the French Open in 2019 and the Australian Open in 2021).

Alexander Zverev extended his winning streak over Jannik Sinner with a massive 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 victory at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday night - a match that lasted nearly five hours. The German claimed his fourth straight win over the Italian and second at the US Open Championships. 

Zverev already did the same against Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria in the third round, when the German earned his sixth consecutive win over the Bulgarian. 

The 12th-seed German started his US Open campaign with a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 first round victory over an in-form Aleksandar Vukic of Australia, followed by a 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win in the all-German clash against Daniel Altmaier in the second round. 

Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview (-500 at BetOnline)

The current Wimbledon champion had a break following his remarkable performance in the United Kingdom earlier this summer. However, Alcaraz exhausted himself in the lead-up to the US Open with a number of demanding three-set matches at the Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati.

Carlos Alcaraz lost a historic final to Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati and failed to progress further in Toronto (losing to American Tommy Paul in the quarter-finals), but has improved his previous best performances on both tournaments. In fact, unlike his success at Indian Wells and Miami, Alcaraz was never particularly successful during the summer North American hard-court swing.

Thus, the top seed's objective in New York City was to reasonably conserve as much energy as possible for the high-profile opponents he'd encounter in the second week, and he has successfully done so. Alcaraz only dropped a set against the Washington Open champion Dan Evans in the third round. 

Indeed, the Spaniard has spent significantly less time on the court compared to his next opponent, Sascha Zverev.

Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz claimed a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win over Matteo Arnaldi of Italy in the round of 16. Now, the 20-year-old Spaniard will be looking to maintain his brilliant record at Flushing Meadows. 

Alcaraz had never lost a completed match in New York City, while he was forced to retire during his quarter final clash against Canada's Felix Auger Aliassime two years ago - in what was his US Open debut campaign. 

He bounced back in 2022 to eventually clinch his maiden Grand Slam crown, notably without having to compete with a formidable player like Novak Djokovic, while Rafael Nadal and then-defending champion Daniil Medvedev both suffered unexpected fourth-round defeats.

Spooky Express Betting Prediction  

The two-time Grand Slam champion is enjoying an impressive 11-match winning streak in Major tournaments and, as mentioned above, boasts a flawless record at the US Open. Alcaraz has already spoken of his intention to become the first player to retain the US Open men's title in 15 years (since Roger Federer won it for a fifth straight year in 2008), as he revealed just how big of a tennis fan he really is: 

"I love watching the matches and following the scores so I know who lost early," Alcaraz said. "I love the Grand Slams. I spend the all day checking the scores."

But on the other hand, in addition to his negative record against Zverev, Alcaraz has consistently encountered challenges when facing powerful servers, which could be a cause for concern as he approaches this significant quarterfinal showdown.

Yet, none of Alcaraz's six losses this season have been against players with such a serving profile, but he has dropped sets against opponents like a struggling Matteo Berrettini, Jan Lennard Struff, Nicolas Jarry (twice), and Hubert Hurkacz (twice). With that said, an even more confident Zverev has his hopes of dethroning Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open quarter-finals. 

Spooky Express Free Play: Over 3½ Sets -130 at BetOnline for 7/10 Units