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US Open ATP Betting Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev

September 8, 2023


The 2021 champion and third-seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia will face defending champion and top seed Carlos Alcaraz for a place in Sunday's US Open final.

Carlos Alcaraz leads Medvedev 2-1 in their head-to-head series. The Spaniard has rightfully earned the status of being the favorite against every player except Novak Djokovic, regardless of the playing surface of course, and this holds true against the Russian as well.

Daniil Medvedev beat his Spanish opponent 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the Wimbledon second round two years ago. However, Alcaraz enjoyed two convincing wins over the Russian earlier this season, including a dominant 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 victory in the Wimbledon semi-finals two months ago.

Elsewhere, Alcaraz also outclassed Medvedev 6-3, 6-2 in this year's Indian Wells Masters final in their first meeting on hard-courts. 

Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview (-400 at BetOnline)

Even though he missed this year's Australian Open due to a hamstring injury, the 20-year-old Spaniard has achieved the remarkable feat of becoming the youngest player to reach three semifinals in Major tournaments in a single season since Novak Djokovic in 2007.

Since he returned to action in February, the reigning US Open champion is enjoying a remarkable campaign on all surfaces. He had already won six titles in 2023, but his standout performance was at Wimbledon, where Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz now fights to become the first man to successfully defend the title at Flushing Meadows (a rare feat nowadays) since Roger Federer accomplished the remarkable feat of winning it five times in a row between 2004 and 2008.

At first glance, the top seed's journey to the US Open final seemed daunting but some favorable results in other ties have alleviated the challenges he had faced, allowing him to reach the semifinals without exhausting himself.

For example, Carlos Alcaraz avoided a tough quarter-final against either of Alexander Zverev or Jannik Sinner. He usually has tricky matches against either of them, but their last-16 tie at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday night lasted nearly five hours.

As a result, Alcaraz was able to wrap up his quarter-final against Sascha Zverev in straight sets (6-3, 6-2, 6-4) in just two hours and 24 minutes, which is an excellent outcome against a powerful server like the German.

The Spaniard extended his fine form in New York City as Alcaraz had never lost a completed match at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. He was only forced to retire during his quarter final clash against Canada's Felix Auger Aliassime in his debut US Open campaign in 2021.

Alcaraz only dropped a set en route to the semi-finals - against the Washington Open champion Dan Evans in the third round. Indeed, the Spaniard had spent significantly less time on the court than first feared and he'll be fresh for the clash against the top-ranked Russian. 

Daniil Medvedev Betting Preview (+320 at BetOnline)

Aiming to reach his fifth Grand Slam final and third at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, the 27-year-old Russian literally survived the unbearable heat and humidity during his quarter-final tie against fellow compatriot Andrey Rublev.

The 2021 US Open champion outlasted Rublev in straight sets but his difficulties with the weather conditions became even more apparent when he remarked during the match: "One player's going to die, and then they're going to see."

Still, Medvedev mastered a remarkable comeback from a break deficit in all three sets with Rublev and will enter this challenging semi-final on the back of some good victories over the past fortnight.

Daniil Medvedev kicked-off his US Open campaign with a comfortable win over Attila Balázs of Hungary. He dropped a set against Christopher O'Connell of Australia in the second round, but still went on to beat two players who're playing their best tennis right now - Sebastián Baez of Argentina and 13th-seed Alex de Minaur of Australia, who reached the finals in Los Cabos in Toronto last month.

In order to play his best tennis and "Find The Superhero Within Himself" - as his coach Gilles Cervara stated - Medvedev requires a source of inspiration. We believe that the Russian can find it in past accomplishments in hardcourt Grand Slam events.

Not only has he been agonizingly close to complete an unbelievable five-set comeback victory against Rafael Nadal in the 2019 Championship match, but Medvedev dropped just one set en route to his first Grand Slam title two years later. In the final match, he dominated Novak Djokovic, thus stopping him from completing the calendar Grand Slam.

As mentioned above, Medvedev lost the Indian Wells Masters final to Carlos Alcaraz earlier this year but he succeeded at the Miami Open right after to claim his first Masters 1000 title since he won the Canadian Open in 2021.

Furthermore, Medvedev also did great on his least preferred surfaces when the Russian won his first Masters crown on clay courts in Rome and he also improved his best Wimbledon performance by reaching the semi-finals.

However, the looming US Open semi-final holds significant importance for Medvedev. Another disappointing defeat for the Russian would seriously hit his morale as well as his prospects of winning Grand Slam titles in the future.

Spooky Express Betting Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz is favored to secure a victory here, which would make him the first man to reach back-to-back US Open finals since Novak Djokovic did so in 2015 and 2016.

Yet, the main question here is: Which Medvedev will show up at the Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday night? The one that demonstrated his hard-court prowess earlier in his career, particularly between 2019 and 2021, or the one that struggled following his Australian Open final defeat in 2022.  

To stand any chance in this matchup, Medvedev must remain focused, not getting distracted and communicating with the crowd as he did earlier in the competition, and play his very best tennis. 

If the Russian can replicate the same level of performance that established him as a formidable force in hardcourt Grand Slams, he has the potential to put on a much more competitive display than what he managed in the most recent meetings with Alcaraz.

Last but not least, Medvedev remains the only one to beat Novak Djokovic on hard-courts this calendar year and the Russian could opt for a different approach in his third attempt against Alcaraz this year.

Spooky Express Free Play: Over 36½ Games -110 at BetOnline for 6/10 Units