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US Open ATP Betting Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs Novak Djokovic

September 10, 2023

Third seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia will face second seed Novak Djokovic of Serbia in the US Open final on Sunday. 


Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev have played 14 times throughout their careers, with the Serb leading the head-to-head series 9-5. 


However, Daniil Medvedev won their most recent encounter 6-4, 6-4 at the Dubai Tennis Championships in March - which, to date, remains Djokovic's only loss in 27 matches on hard-courts this season. 


The 23-time Grand Slam champion won the previous four meetings, yet they have not met at a Major since the Russian's remarkable triumph in New York two years ago. 


Daniil Medvedev Betting Preview (+215 at BetOnline) 


The 27-year-old mastered a remarkable 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory over top-seed Carlos Alcaraz at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday night. He held his nerve in the first set to win the tiebreaker 7-6 before taking the second 6-1. 


Alcaraz won the third set but Medvedev remained composed to wrap up the match in four sets, in three hours and 22 minutes. Thus, the top-ranked Russian dethroned his Spanish counterpart with a solid performance to set up a mouthwatering final against Novak Djokovic of Serbia in Sunday's showdown.  


It seems that Daniil Medvedev followed the instructions of his coach Gilles Cervara, who stated that Medvedev "Needs to Find The Superhero Within Himself". According to the Frenchman, who has worked with Medvedev since 2017, players need to find a level beyond their best to compete with the likes of the Spaniard.


The magnitude of Medvedev's performance (the Russian stated he played at a '12 out of 10' level to defeat him) even led to a reality check for two-time Grand Slam winner Carlos Alcaraz, who said: 'After this match, I'm gonna change my mind. I'm not mature enough to handle these kind of matches.'  


The 2021 champion kicked-off his new US Open campaign with a thumping 6-1, 6-1, 6-0 win over Attila Balázs of Hungary. Deeply involved in the biggest rivalry in men's tennis right now - Medvedev against the US Open crowd - the Russian dropped a set but still won comfortably against Christopher O'Connell of Australia in the second round. 


The Russian No. 3 seed went on to beat the likes of Sebastián Baez of Argentina and Alex de Minaur of Australia. They both play their best tennis right now and the 13th-seed Australian had just reached two ATP finals in Los Cabos in Toronto last month.


In the quarter-finals, Medvedev outlasted his fellow compatriot and close friend Andrey Rublev in straight sets but both Russians experienced difficulties with the brutal heat. Their struggles were even more apparent when Medvedev remarked: "One player's going to die, and then they're going to see."


Despite the unbearable weather conditions, Medvedev produced a remarkable comeback from a break deficit in all three sets against Rublev and headed into the semi-finals on a high.


To sum up Medvedev's resurrection this season, he also did great on his least preferred surfaces when the Russian won his first Masters 1000 title on clay courts in Rome and he also improved his best Wimbledon performance by reaching the semi-finals.


Novak Djokovic Betting Preview (-250 at BetOnline) 


The Djoker claimed an anticipated victory over American sensation Ben Shelton to end his fairytale run at the home Grand Slam. The Serb was dominant in the opening two sets (6-3, 6-2), but he was forced to spend more time in the third set than in the first two combined. 


Yet, Djokovic won the third set tiebreak to advance to his 10th US Open final and 36th Major final. He boasts an incredible record and the Serb hopes to clinch his 24th Grand Slam title after the unexpected Wimbledon setback earlier this summer. 


Bidding to win his fourth US Open crown, Djokovic encountered just one Top-10 player marching to the final. Indeed, the challenges presented to the 23-time Grand Slam winner simply didn't meet his usual standard for testing himself. 


Other than his third-round tie against fellow compatriot Laslo Djere, Djokovic enjoyed (did he?) a smooth run to the semi-finals, with the 36-year-old claiming a number of comfortable straight-sets victories over Alexandre Muller of France, Bernabé Zapata Miralles of Spain, Borna Gojo of Croatia and USA's Taylor Fritz.


Djokovic's 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3 win over Djere last weekend was the eighth two-set comeback of his glorious career and the Serb veteran therefore conserved as much energy as possible for Sunday's final.


Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic was allowed to return to the United States for the first time since 2021, after his heart-breaking US Open final defeat to Daniil Medvedev. With a brilliant victory against Carlos Alcaraz, the Serb veteran proceeded to win his third Cincinnati Masters championship and a record-extending 39th Masters 1000 title.


Spooky Express Betting Prediction 


Despite something of a love-hate relationship with the crowd in New York City, Medvedev apparently feels great as he rekindled his spirit and winning touch at the US Open - the tournament where he enjoys his best tennis. 


Remarkably, whereas the Russian reached the fifth Grand Slam final of his career, this Championship match will mark Novak Djokovic's fourth final of the season alone. 


However, Djokovic's superiority was even more clear when the Serb fell one match short of completing the calendar Grand Slam in the US Open final against Medvedev two years ago. 


Be sure, the Serb won't underestimate his opponent, particularly given the fact that he is yet to earn a title in this tournament since 2018. Moreover, Djokovic has endured six losses in his previous US Open finals (losing to five different players). 


This represents the highest number of runner-up finishes he has accumulated and half of his final defeats in Major tournaments.


We already backed Novak Djokovic to win the men's singles title in our 2023 US Open Betting Preview, but it won't be an easy match. 


Spooky Express Free Play: Over 39½ Games -105 at BetOnline for 6/10 Units