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US Open ATP Betting Preview: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

September 1, 2023


No. 14 seed Tommy Paul of the United States will face 21st seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina of Spain in the US Open third round on Friday, 1st of September. 

The winner will face either Ben Shelton of the United States or Aslan Karatsev of Russia in the next round. 

Tommy Paul won the previous two matches between the two. The American first beat his Spanish opponent in five sets (6-2, 2-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4) in the Australian Open second round earlier this year and he also claimed a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Miami Open a few months later. 

Tommy Paul Betting Preview (-135 at BetUS) 

Coached by Brad Stine, who guided South African Kevin Anderson to the 2018 Wimbledon final, Tommy Paul is steadily improving over the past few years.

The 26-years-old American, who reached the Australian Open semi-finals in January, already leveled his best US Open performance of reaching the third round. 

During his impressive Australian Open run earlier this year, Paul defeated the likes of Jan-Lennard Struff, his current opponent Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Jenson Brooksby, as well as the 24th seed Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain in the last-16.

Thus, Tommy Paul secured an all-American quarter-final clash against Ben Shelton and with his 7-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 victory, he became the first American male player to reach the Australian Open semi-finals (where he fell to eventual champion Novak Djokovic) since Andy Roddick in 2009.

To emphasize his progress over the past couple of months, Paul reached his first ATP 500 final at the Mexican Open (where he suffered a comeback loss to Alex de Minaur of Australia) in early-March. He wasn't able to impress on clay, but after the short grass-court season (that saw him reaching his third career ATP final at the Eastbourne International - where he lost to Francisco Cerúndolo of Argentina), Paul was more than ready for the North American hard-court swing. 

At the Canadian Open, 12th-seed Tommy Paul reached his first win over an actual World No. 1 player as he beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 in the quarter-finals following wins over Diego Schwartzman, Francisco Cerúndolo and Marcos Giron. An impressive run that ended in the semi-finals (his maiden Masters 1000 semi-final), where Paul lost in straight sets to eventual champion Jannik Sinner of Italy. 

He continued in Cincinnati where Paul, seeded 14th, claimed straight-sets victories over Miomir Kecmanovic of Serbia and Ugo Humbert of France. His next opponent was the World No 1 Carlos Alcara again and Paul fought really hard but he eventually lost 6-7, 7-6, 3-6 

Since he arrived in New York City, Paul has been properly tested. The 14th seed American kicked off his US Open campaign with a 6-2, 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 win over Italian qualifier Stefano Travaglia. 

Tommy Paul most remarkably survived a major scare in the second round as he rallied from two sets down for the first time in his career, surging past Roman Safiullin of Russia 3-6, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 in three hours and 12 minutes.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Betting Preview (+113 at BetUS)

The 24-years-old Spanish player is enjoying a career-high No. 21 in the ATP Rankings and will be keen to build on his best US Open performance.  

Having reached his second Masters 1000 semi-final in Toronto, Davidovich Fokina claimed wins over the likes of J.J. Wolf, 13th seed Alexander Zverev, third seed Casper Ruud and Mackenzie McDonald. 

After an impressive run at the Canadian Open, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina traveled to Cincinnati where the Spaniard retired early in the second set of his second round match against eventual champion Novak Djokovic because of a lower back injury.

Davidovich Fokina opened his US Open campaign with a comfortable 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win over USA's Marcos Giron - son of Spanish parents himself - before he went on to beat Juan Manuel Cerúndolo of Argentina 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 in the second round. 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

Both players were one step away from securing a shock final at the Canadian Open a few weeks ago. However, both Paul and Davidovich Fokina lost in the semi-finals, but their performances have shown how good they play tennis right now.   

So, can we expect another intense five-setter between Tommy Paul and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday? With Tommy Paul favored to earn his third consecutive win over his Spanish opponent, who on his behalf, is aiming to claim his first victory over the American and to reach the US Open fourth round for the third time in his career.      

Unlike Davidovich Fokina's perfect record so far, Tommy Paul was forced to play nine sets over the opening two rounds. However, Paul has shown resilience and is our favorite to get the better of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Spooky Express Free Play: Tommy Paul -135 at BetUS for 7/10 Units