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ATP Indian Wells Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev

March 17, 2024

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz of Spain will face fourth-seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia in a rematch of last year’s final in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz leads 3-2 in his head-to-head series against the Russian. He also won 6-4, 6-4, in their last meeting in the ATP Finals round robin stage in November. 

Moreover, the Spaniard came away with the title in the Indian Wells Masters final one year ago, sweeping Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-2 in just one hour and 12 minutes.

Medvedev, however, secured a big win over Alcaraz in the US Open semi-finals last year and the Russian will be aiming to replicate the same level of performance in order to succeed. 

Daniil Medvedev Betting Preview (+185 at MyBookie) 

It looks like Medvedev found the way to both physically and mentally recover from his Australian Open campaign in January, when the experienced Russian played a number of really exhausting matches and eventually suffered yet another heartbreaking Grand Slam final loss.

As a result, the 28-year-old is once again producing a strong campaign in the desert. So far so good, Daniil Medvedev is just one win away from becoming the tournament’s sixth successive first-time champion.

Even though Medvedev stated that's not his favorite hard-court venue, the Russian had won all hard-court ATP Masters 1000 competitions except for the Indian Wells Masters but that's something he could change on Sunday night. 

Medvedev claimed some prestigious wins en route to his second successive final in Indian Wells. Kicking-off his campaign with a routine 6-2, 6-3 win over Roberto Carballes Baena of Spain, the World No. 4 was properly tested by USA's Sebastian Korda in the third round. 

He also breezed past an in-form Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16 before he beat Holger Rune of Denmark 7-5, 6-4 in the quarter-finals. 

In the semi-finals, Medvedev had to face another American in 17th-seed Tommy Paul. He dropped the first set 6-1 (!), but remained composed to win the second set on a tie break. 

Things were not that simple, though. Daniil Medvedev was forced to showcase his resilience as Paul came back from being 5-2 down in the second set to force a tiebreaker. And then the American earned a 3-2 lead, before his own serves, but Medvedev won five straight points to take control of the game. 

And he ultimately survived an upset bid to wrap up a hard-fought 1-6, 7-6 (7-3), 6-2 victory over Paul.

Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview (-230 at MyBookie) 

Having reached an astonishing eight (8!!!) ATP Tour finals between February and August last year, and even more remarkably triumphing in six, Alcaraz had now reached his first championship match since the Cincinnati Open, where he lost an epic match against Novak Djokovic. 

With that said, the 20-year-old will be keen to clinch his first title since Wimbledon, when Alcaraz produced an unbelievable performance to end Novak Djokovic's Grand Slam dream. 

The Spaniard entered the Sunshine Double series as one of the defending champions. Having won the Indian Wells crown last year (his third Masters 1000 trophy), when he once again beat Jannik Sinner of Italy in the semi-finals, Alcaraz would love to repeat his success against Medvedev as well. 

Like his opponent, Alcaraz also struggled in the first set of his semi-final tie against Jannik Sinner. The Italian led 2-1 (in the opening set) when the match was suspended for more than three hours because of rain in the Southern California desert. 

It wasn't the first time Alcaraz's match was halted at the Indian Wells Masters this year as his quarterfinal against Zverev was also suspended due to a.... bee invasion early in the first set. 

After a three-hour rain delay, Carlos Alcaraz rallied from a set down to end Sinner’s unbeaten form with an impressive 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory.

Moreover, The Italian could have leapfrogged Alcaraz and into No 2 in the ATP Rankings with an anticipated victory, after winning 19 matches on the bounce, including 16 in a row in 2024. 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

Both players are bidding for their first title of the year when they go head to head at Indian Wells on Sunday.

To be fair, most of their meetings have ended in a straight-sets victory and the bookies are now backing Alcaraz to defend his Indian Wells title. 

However, we believe that Medvedev's current form shouldn't be underestimated. The Russian is arguably one of the most unpredictable players on the ATP Tour and if he remains focused on the game, he definitely has the skills to dethrone Carlos Alcaraz. 

Spooky Express Free Play: Exact Sets - 3 +130 at MyBookie for 5/10 Units