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ATP Indian Wells Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov

March 13, 2024

Fourth-seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia will square off against 13th seed Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters on Wednesday evening. 

The winner of this match will face either 7th seed Holger Rune of Denmark or 12th seed Taylof Fritz of the United States in the quarter-finals. 

Daniil Medvedev leads 6-3 in his head-to-head series with Grigor Dimitrov. Still, the Bulgarian won their most recent meeting when he beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-7, 7-6 in the second round of the Paris Masters last year.

However, Medvedev won their previous two matches between them  in 2023, including a semi-final victory in Rotterdam last February. It’s worth pointing out that the Bulgarian snapped a three-match losing streak to Daniil Medvedev in the French capital last year. 

All but one of their previous nine meetings were on hard-courts (Medvedev leads 6-2), though. Dimitrov won the pair's first-ever meeting at the Queen's Club Championship (grass) in 2017 when he claimed a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 victory in the quarter-finals.

Since then, Medvedev also earned a 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 win over the Bulgarian in the US Open semi-finals in 2019, but Dimitrov stunned his Russian opponent at the Indian Wells Masters in 2021 (4-6, 6-4, 6-3). 

Daniil Medvedev Betting Preview (-170 at MyBookie) 

The Russian suffered yet another Grand Slam setback when he wasted a two-sets-to-love lead to eventually lose the Australian Open final against Jannik Sinner in January. It wasn’t the first heartbreaking moment for Medvedev at Melbourne Park, who already lost in a similar fashion to Rafael Nadal two years ago. 

Daniil Medvedev returned to action at the Dubai Tennis Championship where he, as the defending champion, was dethroned by Ugo Humbert in the semi-finals. 

The World No. 4 has proved to be reliable with his serve, but he has had a lot of trouble holding in Coachella Valley. Medvedev was only broken once over the course of his second-round match against Roberto Carballes Baena, but Sebastian Korda broke him seven times (the American converted 78% of his break points) during their third-round battle on Monday. 

That could be an issue for Medvedev, who still managed to survive and avoid another demoralizing loss in the early stages of the season. The 28-year-old Russian faced a critical moment when he got broken from 40-0 up while serving to stay in the second set and struggled to maintain leads in the deciding third set before ultimately securing a hard-fought victory at 6-3.

Despite his claims (about the conditions in Indian Wells), the experienced Russian entered the Sunshine Double looking to defend his Miami Open crown, but to also build on his last Indian Wells performance - Medvedev lost the final to Carlos Alcaraz. 

Grigor Dimitrov Betting Preview (+145 at MyBookie) 

The 32-year-old Bulgarian continues his late career resurgence with some strong performances in Indian Wells but he will be aiming to go even further. 

Dimitrov, who is about to turn 33 in May, has reached the semi-finals at the Indian Wells Masters in 2021. He also made it to the quarterfinals two years ago, but Dimitrov still has what it takes to make big statements on the court. 

When it looked like Dimitrov could go deep into the Australian Open main draw, the Bulgarian crumbled to lose in four sets to Nuno Borges of Portugal in the third-round. The Portuguese really produced his best-career performance, but you would normally expect much more from Dimitrov. 

After his Australian journey, Dimitrov returned to Europe where he attended two indoor tournaments in Marseille and Rotterdam. First, the Bulgarian reached the final of the Open 13 in Marseille, where he lost to Ugo Humbert of France, while he also reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam where Alex de Minaur ended his run. 

Dimitrov opted for a break following his Rotterdam Open campaign and he resumed his season directly at the Indian Wells Masters. 

The top-ranked Bulgarian hasn't broken a sweat through his opening two matches in California, and he now faces a vulnerable version of his Russian counterpart.

Grisho has played brilliantly in Indian Wells thus far, defeating French duo Alexandre Muller and Adrian Mannarino without dropping a set. In fact, he extended his winning streak over Mannarino, with the French veteran still failing to beat his Bulgarian opponent after five matches. 

Remarkably, Dimitrov found a really nice groove with the ball on his racquet, whether it’s serving up unreturnable balls or just setting himself up well for the rally. The latter is even more important to note ahead of a match against Medvedev, as Dimitrov had won 71.5% of his service points excluding aces and double faults. 

That represents the highest achievement on tour, and nobody else is at 70.0% or higher at the moment.

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

The 28-year-old Russian is arguably one of the best returners in the world, and he boasts the fifth-highest break percentage on the ATP Tour over the last 52 weeks.

Medvedev is a wall along the baseline but Grigor Dimitrov's variety might also give him a real edge in longer rallies. Furthermore, the Russian is the first to admit that the conditions in Indian Wells don’t bring out the best of his game - something Dimitrov will be keen to exploit. And he's got the know-how.

All that should give Dimitrov the confidence he needs to go out and win another matchup, especially knowing that Medvedev is nowhere near his top level at the moment.

Spooky Express Free Play: Grigor Dimitrov +145 at MyBookie for 5/10 Units