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ATP Indian Wells Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez

March 11, 2024


12th-seed Taylor Fritz of the United States will face No. 19 seed Sebastian Baez of Argentina in the third round of the Indian Wells Masters

The winner of this match will advance to face either seventh-seed Holger Rune of Denmark or 26th-seed Lorenzo Musetti of Italy in the next round. 

The American will be keen to extend his winning run over Sebastian Baez. Taylor Fritz won all of their previous three meetings and is yet to drop a set against the Argentine. 

Sebastian Baez and Taylor Fritz last met at the Paris Masters in late-October, when the American won 6-1, 6-4 in the first round. 

Furthermore, Fritz claimed another comfortable 6-1, 6-2 win over Baez at Indian Wells last year.

Taylor Fritz Betting Preview (-625 at Everygame)

Recently dropping out of the top 10, an early exit from the first Masters 1000 of the year could cause more damage to his ATP Ranking, also considering he has quarterfinal points to defend in Indian Wells.

Having reached the quarter-finals last year, the 26-year-old American is bidding to hit his peak form at the Sunshine Double. In fact, reaching the quarter-finals at Indian Wells one year ago was Fritz's worst performance over the past three seasons as he went on to win the title in 2022 (an epic final win over Rafael Nadal) and also was a semifinalist back in 2021. 

Fritz fought hard but eventually lost 4-6, 6-4, 4-6 to Jannik Sinner in last year's quarter-finals. Still, he remains one of the most consistent performers at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in the post-covid era. 

After he reached the Australian Open quarter-finals, where he lost in four sets to Novak Djokovic, Fritz returned to action at the Davis Cup but his first individual competition was at the Delray Beach Open. 

As a defending champion and top seed, Fritz defeated fellow American Tommy Paul (third seed) in the final, 6–2, 6–3 to deservedly earn his first title of the year. The success led to his seventh ATP Tour singles title, and he did not drop a set in victories against Nuno Borges, Rinky Hijikata and Marcos Giron earlier in the competition.

Fritz would be pleased to have regained his winning ability, especially after its absence contributed to his unexpected defeat in a three-setter to Italy's Matteo Arnaldi in the opening round of the Mexican Open, where the American was fourth-seed.

Sebastian Baez Betting Preview (+400 at Everygame) 

The recently crowned Argentine No. 1 geared up for his third Indian Wells Masters on multiple events across South America - all on clay courts. 

Sebastián Báez started his clay-court season at the Davis Cup when he beat Dmitry Popko of Kazakhstan in three sets during Argentina's 3-2 win over Kazakhstan. 

Having lost two of his first three ATP finals, Sebastian Baez had now won five consecutive finals and is at a career-high No. 19 in the ATP Rankings.

Being the defending champion at the Cordoba Open, the 23-year-old Argentine reached the semifinals for a second year in a row, but lost in three sets to Italian qualifier Luciano Darderi, who went on to win the trophy. 

He entered another tournament in his homeland when Baez lost in the quarter-finals of the Argentina Open to fellow countryman Federico Coria in straight sets. 

Seeded fifth at the 2024 Rio Open, the Argentine reached the biggest final of his career defeating fourth seed and compatriot Francisco Cerúndolo in the semi-finals. He clinched his first ATP 500 title after defeating qualifier and first time ATP finalist, compatriot Mariano Navone 6-2, 6-1.

The following week, Baez won his second title of the campaign at the Chile Open defeating home favorite Alejandro Tabilo. As a result Sebastian Baez became the Latin American No. 1 male player when he moved into the Top 20.

With his recent triumph over Chile's Alejandro Tabilo for the Santiago title, the Argentine became the first player to win multiple titles during the South American clay-court swing since Cristian Garin in 2020. 

Even though all but one of his eight finals are on clay, he still triumphed at the Winston-Salem Open last August when the Argentine beat Daniel Elahi Galan, Aleksandar Vukic, Laslo Djere and Boric Coric en route to the final as well as Jiri Lehecka in the final.  

Baez opened his Indian Wells Masters campaign with a 7-5, 6-3 win over out-of-form Italian veteran Fabio Fognini in his first match on hard-courts since the defeat to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open. 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

Unlike his opponent, Baez has been far from impressive on hard-courts but his current momentum is something we need to consider ahead of this match. 

However, Fritz looks quite solid and his ability to win matches as the favorite without showcasing any extraordinary skills has been a valuable trait for the top-ranked American in recent seasons. 

Spooky Express Free Play: Under 20.5 Games -118 at Everygame for 6/10 Units